

(2012) A systematic review to calculate background miscarriage rates using life table analysis. BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, 114: 170–186. (2007), Risk factors for first trimester miscarriage-results from a UK-population-based case–control study. (2002), Obesity Increases the Risk of Spontaneous Abortion during Infertility Treatment. (2008), Miscarriage Risk for Asymptomatic Women After a Normal First-Trimester Prenatal Visit. These assumptions are likely overly strong, as there are likely confounding variables, but is the most reasonable approximation in the absence of additional data. Each variable is modeled separately, assumed to be independent and assumed to affect the probability of miscarriage uniformly over time. The model can be be used without additional input, or can be adjusted with any combination of maternal age, height/weight (BMI), number of previous miscarriages and number of previous births inputs. The underlying model for this site is derived using meta analysis of the following peer reviewed papers on miscarriage. This page calculates the cumulative probability of pregnancy loss from a given point in pregnancy through 20 weeks gestation. That is the definition we are using as well. Miscarriage is clinically defined as pregnancy loss before 20 weeks gestation. Still not sure how far along you are? Try the Pregnancy Week By Week Calendar which will give you gestational age based on LMP, ovulation or due date.

Gestational age estimated from the dating ultrasound will be the most accurate, followed by gestational age based on ovulation (if known) and finally by gestational age based on LMP.

If you've had a 1st trimester ultrasound (sometimes referred to as a dating ultrasound) your doctor may have given you a due date and gestational age that differs from those calculated from last menstrual period (LMP). Want to bookmark the Miscarriage Probability Chart with all it's data so you don't have to keep re-entering your maternal info it day after day? Probabilities in the table are rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, so very small probability differences between two dates may not be noticeable in the table. For example, if the model gives the probability of a miscarriage occurring on or after 4 weeks, 0 days is as 25.2%, and the probability of a miscarriage occurring on or after 4 weeks, 1 day as 24.4%, then the probability of a miscarriage occurring at exactly 4 weeks, 0 days is 25.2-24.4 or 0.8%. You can therefore find the day-specific odds, or the odds between two points in time, by subtracting the probability associated with date from another. The miscarriage probability table displays the probability of a miscarriage occurring on or after a given point in pregnancy. The underlying model can also account for added risk factors like maternal age, weight, the number of previous miscarriages and the number of previous live births. The Daily Miscarriage Probability Chart calculates the probability of miscarriage or, conversely, the probability of not miscarrying, given how far a person is in their pregnancy.
